Tuesday, December 27, 2016

Demonetization: What Rupee could do, Bolivar could not manage it!

On October 8, 2016, India implemented unthinkable is to implement Demonetization. It effective removed the currency notes of rupees 500 & 1000 (86% of cash in circulation) from market by declaring them as an invalid legal tender.
Venezuela, taking a cue from this, tried to implement something similar by scraping Bolivar 100 notes, and replacing it with higher currency notes (up to Bolivar 20000).

While the intent on both the occasions was more or less the same to curb corruption and deter black money hoarders; it met with different fate in both the countries.

In India, the implementation still seems to be successful, and true success of demonetization can be measured only after a few months. It had to be rolled back in Venezuela within few days of rolling it out.

I see three main reasons for the successful implementation of demonetization in India:
  1. A vision: Clarity of thought on the need to implement this. Underlying idea was very pertinent to the people in general.
  2. Better Marketing: Howsoever short notice to implement the initiative, the concept was presented rightly to the people. Crisp and clear message noting the point #1, and coupled with  with broader nationalism angle left little opposition. 
  3. Conductive Environment: Indian economy is comparatively in much better shape, and government still enjoys a majority support. Government came up with this offensive, when opposition was asking questions on its pre-election manifesto to curb corruption. It was killing two birds with one strike.
These three reasons allowed the people to embrace the idea, absorb the pain (supposedly short term) and support the initiative.

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